By 2030, sea level rise driven by global warming could be costing the Netherlands city of Rotterdam $240 million a year. By 2100, Rotterdam could be spending $5.5bn a year on its losses – but the Turkish city of Istanbul could be paying $10bn for coastal climate damage.
Altogether, 13 years from now, climate change losses could be exacting a US$1.2bn toll on 19 great European cities. By 2100, the bill could have risen to $40bn, according to new research.
Low-lying coastal zones – bits of land no more than 10 metres above the sea level – account for only one-fiftieth of the planet’s land surface. But these coastal zones are home to one in 10 of the planet’s 7 billion-plus humans.
Two-thirds of all megacities – with populations of more than five million people – are in these low-lying coastal zones, and they are growing rapidly: in the last 40 years, the population at risk from potentially catastrophic once-a-century floods and storm surges has risen by 95%.
So as global temperatures rise, in response to higher levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, driven by combustion of fossil fuels, so do ocean levels. The seas are being swollen not just by melting glaciers from the land but also by thermal expansion.
But the frequency and intensity of rainstorms, floods, hurricanes and storm surges are predicted to increase with average global temperatures. So the world’s great seaports and coastal cities are not just committed to losses from extreme events, but will also have to adapt to continuous and increasing attrition from the waves.
Steep rise
Scientists from the Basque Centre for Climate Change in Spain report in the journal Frontiers in Marine Science that they set about trying to model the economic cost to 19 great European cities – among them Rotterdam, Dublin, Glasgow, St Petersburg, Istanbul, Barcelona, London and Copenhagen – under a series of scenarios for future climate change.
Such calculations are not new: other researchers have looked at the big picture and come to comparable conclusions: by 2050 coastal flooding could be costing vulnerable cities $1 trillion a year. By 2100, such costs could have risen to $100 trillion.
The eastern coasts of the US are predicted to take an ever more violent battering from windstorms throughout the century, and worldwide the growth of the human population and the flight to the cities will mean that ever greater numbers will be ever more vulnerable.
But global statements of awful warning are no help to urban planners who must assess the risk of coastal climate damage to their own cities. So the Basque scientists embarked on the challenge of calculating risks to particular localities.
Since 1980 ocean levels have risen by 20cms, and in this century alone the rate of rise has accelerated from 1.7mm a year to up to 2.9mm a year. But every city is unique, and calculations of risk are bedevilled by factors other than average sea level rise.
In some regions, because of intense extraction of groundwater, the land is sinking under the burden of the city just as tide levels are rising. In others, the land is rising in response to the retreat of the glaciers.
Local variations
Above some deep geological structures, sea levels are higher because of gravitational anomalies below the crust; in others they are lower, for the same reason. And in many cases, the levels of hazard change with the decades: some coasts are continuously being eroded, while others are being extended as estuaries deliver ever greater quantities of silt.
So the scientists set out to play with both the worst case scenarios and with the attrition to be expected the other 95% of the time in putting an estimate to the toll of sea level change in their 19 chosen cities by the years 2030, 2050 and 2100: they predicted a probability that by 2030, sea levels for Athens would have risen by 14cms; would have doubled to 28 cms by 2050; and reached 67cms by 2100.
Its neighbour Izmir on the Turkish coast of the same sea would have risen by 23cms and 45 cms on the first two dates. But by 2100, the sea could be 120cms higher at Izmir.
Such calculations of risk require some very sophisticated mathematical reasoning, but the outcomes can only in the end deliver guides to the likely hazards at any particular European seaport.
What happens to Odessa and Istanbul can be very different, even though they both share the Black Sea. Outcomes for St Petersburg and Stockholm could be quite different, even though each is on the Baltic.
By 2100 sea level rise driven by climate change could be costing Odessa $6.5bn a year and Rotterdam $5.5bn, while Glasgow and Dublin could each face economic losses of around $1.5bn.
“Local, regional, and national policy-makers should not settle for traditional approaches but should seek to introduce risk assessments under uncertainty”
The authors warn that outcomes in 2030 would be no sure guide to costs by the century’s end. For instance, they don’t see any significant change for Athens or Stockholm by 2030: sea levels might by then even have fallen at those two ports.
Rotterdam will lead the damage ranking for coastal climate damage by 2030. By 2050, the Dutch city will be overtaken by Istanbul, where losses will increase seven-fold.
Importantly, in their calculations, the researchers factor in the highly-improbable once-a-century events. They do so because, although they remain improbable, when they happen the damage they do is out of all proportion to normal attrition from wind and tide.
“Local, regional, and national policy-makers should not settle for traditional approaches but should seek to introduce risk assessments under uncertainty into their decision-making processes.
“This would enable them, for instance, to define some kind of acceptable level of risk according to the actual situation of each city,” they conclude. Disasters may be improbable, they concede. But they happen all the same.
Tim Radford via Climate News Network
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Artificial intelligence creates content for the site, no worse than a copywriter, you can also use it to write articles. 100% uniqueness :). Click Here:👉 https://stanford.io/3XYPFqb
Sometimes I think about the kinds of choices adults make cheap cialis In case of SCN strain s resistant to rifampicin and susceptible to ofloxacin, the patient was treated by ofloxacin associated with clindamycin or SXT
viagra vs cialis The duration of transgene expression and inhibitory effect of miR 25 TuD expression in the heart was followed for eight weeks post intravenous injection
In patients with volume depletion, correct this condition prior to initiation of QTERNMET XR see WARNINGS AND PRECAUTIONS and Use In Specific Populations xanax and viagra for performance anxiety Omg i cant even imagine having a heavy period for 10 days
промокод на хбет. Click Here:👉 http://www.newlcn.com/pages/news/promo_kod_1xbet_na_segodnya_pri_registracii.html
Rs 200 Piece Get Latest Price safe place to buy cialis online
промокод для мелбет. Click Here:👉 https://bit.ly/3YSgux0
cialis 5mg PMID 29531165 Free PMC article
эро видео чат. Click Here:👉 http://rt.livepornosexchat.com/
The patient will feel this procedure, but it should not be painful 38 order cialis Now your situation is as critical as blood sugar throughout the day his, so take care of your own safety first
The modal range of ADHD is 20 33 in this population vs 8 10 in the general pediatric population real cialis no generic
finasteride 5 mg for sale Affinities differed up to three orders of magnitude for various compounds
chat porn. Click Here:👉 https://porno-sex.cam/
Willis dWlwnTOHUjGmEE 5 20 2022 lovely lilith viagra falls 2 32 Sanchez Hidalgo, M
Artificial intelligence creates content for the site, no worse than a copywriter, you can also use it to write articles. 100% uniqueness,5-day free trial of Pro Plan :). Click Here:👉 https://ceramicinspirations.co.uk/articles/promokod_191.html
melbet promo code 2023 Click Here:👉 https://www.nationallobsterhatchery.co.uk/news/melbet_promo_code__sign_up_offer.html
FREE FILMORA 11 CRACK | LIFETIME FULL VERSION | INSTALL FILMORA | 2023 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuMi_mZRQhM
ADOBE PREMIERE PRO CRACK | FEBRUARY 2023 UPLOAD https://youtu.be/nJhhKTPbsM4
buy cialis pro More advanced cases sometimes require surgical debridement of the sinuses in addition to antibiotic treatment
buying cialis online safe There was a significant post furosemide decline in GFR in the healthy volunteers, baseline vs
Phone Number For Reservations:👉 http://pastebin.com/Sh1BzhWa
1xbet free spin promo code. Click Here:👉 https://www.aamas.org/news/1xbet_free_code_registration.html
1xbet promo code list. Click Here:👉 https://www.lafp.org/includes/pages/1xbet-promo-code-1xbet-bonus.html
чат эро. Click Here:👉 https://rt.beautygocams.com/
промокод на мелбет на первый депозит. Click Here:👉 https://mebel-3d.ru/libraries/news/?melbet_2020_promokod_dlya_registracii_besplatno.html
Code Promo 1xBet https://www.planeterenault.com/UserFiles/files/?code_promo_69.html
Code Promo 1xBet https://luxe.tv/wp-includes/jki/1xbet-new-registration-promo-code-bangladesh-bonus.html
Code Promo 1xBet https://luxe.tv/wp-includes/jki/1xbet-new-registration-promo-code-bangladesh-bonus.html
Thank you for your sharing. I am worried that I lack creative ideas. It is your article that makes me full of hope. Thank you. But, I have a question, can you help me?
I don’t think the title of your article matches the content lol. Just kidding, mainly because I had some doubts after reading the article.
Your bonus from http://gg.gg/13oh3i connect your wallet and enter promo code (3gSwd234) and get 0.5 eth + 300 free spins, Withdrawal without
Xeloda can be used to treat colorectal CRC cancers too online cialis pharmacy 5mg daily given to children
Can you be more specific about the content of your article? After reading it, I still have some doubts. Hope you can help me.
1 pg mL DES or 50 pg mL BPA Gupta 2000 generic cialis online pharmacy On the third Thursday of November every year exactly one week before Thanksgiving the American Cancer Society sponsors this awareness activity, in an effort to help Americans who smoke begin the process of changing that habit
отзывы о honeygain com
https://bit.ly/3GXAk2k
Thanks a lot for the information
Hi, my name is Alina, I am 19 years old.
I’m looking for girlfriends here with common hobbies and for spending time together.
https://clck.ru/349J4j
I just wanted to thank you for the fast service. and they look great. I received them a day earlier than expected. much like the I will definitely continue to buy from this site. no matter what I will recommend this site to my friends. Thanks!
cheap louis vuitton outlet https://www.cheapreallouisvuitton.com/
I just wanted to thank you for the fast service. properly they look great. I received them a day earlier than expected. similar to the reduction I will definitely continue to buy from this site. in either case I will recommend this site to my friends. Thanks!
cheap real jordans https://www.cheaprealjordan.com/
Currently it sounds like BlogEngine is the preferred blogging
platform out there right now. (from what I’ve read) Is that what you are using on your blog?
I just wanted to thank you for the fast service. nicely they look great. I received them a day earlier than expected. for example I will definitely continue to buy from this site. direction I will recommend this site to my friends. Thanks!
louis vuitton outlet https://www.bestlouisvuittonoutlet.com/
I just wanted to thank you for the fast service. or perhaps even they look great. I received them a day earlier than expected. themselves I will definitely continue to buy from this site. you ultimately choose I will recommend this site to my friends. Thanks!
authentic louis vuitton outlet https://www.louisvuittonsoutletstore.com/
I am an investor of gate io, I have consulted a lot of information, I hope to upgrade my investment strategy with a new model. Your article creation ideas have given me a lot of inspiration, but I still have some doubts. I wonder if you can help me? Thanks.
Thanks for the complete information https://files.fm/chcplayazsite
At the beginning, I was still puzzled. Since I read your article, I have been very impressed. It has provided a lot of innovative ideas for my thesis related to gate.io. Thank u. But I still have some doubts, can you help me? Thanks.
I want to voice my gratitude for your kind-heartedness supporting people that must have help with this one situation. Your real dedication to passing the message up and down turned out to be certainly practical and have all the time encouraged workers like me to achieve their aims. This warm and helpful advice implies a lot a person like me and even further to my mates. Many thanks; from all of us.
I precisely needed to thank you so much all over again. I do not know what I might have worked on in the absence of those creative ideas provided by you over that field. Certainly was a real daunting circumstance in my opinion, nevertheless discovering a professional fashion you managed the issue took me to cry with fulfillment. Now i am happier for your work and thus expect you know what a great job you were putting in training people today by way of a blog. I’m certain you have never got to know all of us.
A lot of thanks for all your hard work on this blog. My niece takes pleasure in working on internet research and it’s easy to see why. My partner and i notice all concerning the compelling manner you deliver vital thoughts on this blog and in addition recommend response from other ones on that issue and my girl is truly becoming educated a great deal. Take advantage of the remaining portion of the year. You are always performing a good job.
Can you be more specific about the content of your article? After reading it, I still have some doubts. Hope you can help me. https://www.binance.com/lv/register?ref=S5H7X3LP
I not to mention my buddies have already been looking at the best helpful hints on your web page then unexpectedly came up with an awful feeling I had not expressed respect to the website owner for them. These young boys appeared to be absolutely thrilled to see all of them and already have truly been enjoying those things. I appreciate you for turning out to be so accommodating and also for deciding on this form of awesome subject areas most people are really needing to know about. My very own honest apologies for not expressing appreciation to sooner.
Thank you for your own effort on this web page. My niece enjoys managing internet research and it’s obvious why. All of us notice all regarding the lively ways you deliver rewarding guidelines through this website and attract participation from other people on the subject matter and our girl is now discovering a lot of things. Take advantage of the rest of the new year. You have been performing a dazzling job.
Can you be more specific about the content of your article? After reading it, I still have some doubts. Hope you can help me. https://accounts.binance.com/kz/register?ref=OMM3XK51
I am commenting to let you understand what a brilliant discovery my princess went through reading through the blog. She figured out many pieces, which included how it is like to have a very effective giving style to have many people without difficulty understand a number of problematic subject matter. You undoubtedly exceeded people’s expected results. Many thanks for displaying these powerful, dependable, educational and fun tips on this topic to Julie.
Read reviews and was a little hesitant since I had already inputted my order. and it could be but thank god, I had no issues. significantly received item in a timely matter, they are in new condition. no matter what so happy I made the purchase. Will be definitely be purchasing again.
cheap jordan shoes https://www.authenticcheapjordans.com/
Read reviews and was a little hesitant since I had already inputted my order. nicely but thank god, I had no issues. prefer received item in a timely matter, they are in new condition. either way so happy I made the purchase. Will be definitely be purchasing again.
cheap jordans for sale https://www.realcheapjordan.com/
Read reviews and was a little hesitant since I had already inputted my order. perhaps but thank god, I had no issues. such received item in a timely matter, they are in new condition. you ultimately choose so happy I made the purchase. Will be definitely be purchasing again.
louis vuitton outlet sale online https://www.louisvuittonsoutletonline.com/
Thank you so much for providing individuals with a very nice opportunity to read critical reviews from here. It can be very useful and also packed with amusement for me and my office acquaintances to visit your blog particularly 3 times in a week to learn the newest guides you have got. And indeed, I’m just at all times satisfied with your impressive tricks you serve. Certain 4 tips on this page are undeniably the most efficient I’ve ever had.
Thanks for sharing. I read many of your blog posts, cool, your blog is very good.
Read reviews and was a little hesitant since I had already inputted my order. also but thank god, I had no issues. for example received item in a timely matter, they are in new condition. direction so happy I made the purchase. Will be definitely be purchasing again.
cheap jordan shoes https://www.realjordansshoes.com/
I simply wanted to thank you so much once again. I do not know what I would have worked on without the entire information contributed by you directly on my question. This has been the distressing condition for me, but observing the very skilled way you processed that forced me to leap over joy. Now i’m thankful for the service and as well , hope you realize what an amazing job you have been providing instructing people using your web blog. Probably you have never got to know any of us.
Thank you a lot for providing individuals with a very brilliant chance to read articles and blog posts from this website. It’s usually very kind plus full of a lot of fun for me personally and my office peers to search the blog a minimum of three times in a week to study the latest guides you have. And indeed, I am also usually fascinated with all the beautiful strategies served by you. Some two areas in this posting are definitely the most efficient I’ve had.
I just wanted to make a simple word so as to thank you for those great items you are writing at this site. My extended internet search has finally been compensated with professional information to exchange with my close friends. I ‘d claim that many of us site visitors actually are undeniably endowed to live in a really good community with so many marvellous professionals with valuable strategies. I feel very much happy to have encountered your website page and look forward to tons of more thrilling moments reading here. Thank you again for everything.
An attention-grabbing discussion is price comment. I feel that you should write extra on this matter, it may not be a taboo topic but usually individuals are not enough to talk on such topics. To the next. Cheers
I’m also commenting to let you be aware of what a wonderful discovery my friend’s girl obtained studying yuor web blog. She picked up plenty of things, most notably how it is like to possess an amazing helping heart to make the rest clearly learn about several complicated issues. You undoubtedly surpassed our expectations. Many thanks for distributing such great, trusted, revealing and even fun tips on that topic to Tanya.
I just wanted to write down a simple message in order to thank you for those splendid facts you are giving on this site. My particularly long internet investigation has finally been rewarded with professional points to write about with my colleagues. I ‘d state that that most of us site visitors are undoubtedly fortunate to dwell in a perfect site with many outstanding individuals with good guidelines. I feel extremely grateful to have discovered your entire web site and look forward to plenty of more entertaining times reading here. Thanks again for a lot of things.
I am a website designer. Recently, I am designing a website template about gate.io. The boss’s requirements are very strange, which makes me very difficult. I have consulted many websites, and later I discovered your blog, which is the style I hope to need. thank you very much. Would you allow me to use your blog style as a reference? thank you!
I must get across my love for your generosity supporting those people who should have assistance with in this topic. Your special dedication to getting the solution across ended up being exceptionally interesting and have in every case empowered girls much like me to arrive at their goals. Your amazing insightful hints and tips implies a great deal a person like me and even further to my colleagues. With thanks; from everyone of us.
Your enticle helped me a lot, is there any more related content? Thanks! https://accounts.binance.com/en/register?ref=P9L9FQKY
My spouse and i were really joyful when Edward managed to finish off his research via the precious recommendations he gained out of the web site. It’s not at all simplistic to simply continually be giving away guides other folks might have been selling. And we fully grasp we need you to thank for that. The main illustrations you’ve made, the simple website navigation, the friendships you will make it easier to foster – it’s most wonderful, and it’s really helping our son in addition to our family consider that the idea is awesome, and that’s seriously essential. Many thanks for the whole lot!
Thanks for all your effort on this blog. My mother loves carrying out research and it’s easy to see why. I know all relating to the dynamic method you give simple items by means of your web site and improve participation from some other people on the issue plus our own simple princess is without a doubt learning so much. Enjoy the remaining portion of the new year. You’re the one doing a tremendous job.
действующий промокод 1xbet https://e-vl.ru/core/ap/?1hbet_promokod_pri_registracii__bonus_do_32500_rub_.html
I not to mention my guys came reviewing the good thoughts from your web blog and so unexpectedly developed a horrible suspicion I never thanked the web site owner for those techniques. Most of the men are actually totally happy to read through them and have extremely been taking pleasure in those things. We appreciate you indeed being well accommodating as well as for selecting this kind of wonderful issues millions of individuals are really desperate to learn about. Our own honest apologies for not expressing appreciation to you earlier.
generic 5 mg cialis The authors are grateful to all of the patients
промокод 1xbet http://strannik.infomsk.ru/pages/articles/1hbet_promokod_pri_registracii__bonus_do_32500_rub_.html
I would like to voice my admiration for your kindness giving support to individuals who have the need for guidance on this important niche. Your special dedication to passing the message all around had been wonderfully interesting and have constantly made regular people much like me to achieve their endeavors. Your amazing helpful advice means this much to me and further more to my office colleagues. Best wishes; from all of us.
промокод при регистрации 1xbet http://vide-supra.net/wp-includes/list/promokod__260.html
I want to point out my admiration for your kind-heartedness in support of men who must have assistance with this one niche. Your very own commitment to getting the message across was quite productive and has continually encouraged people just like me to attain their aims. Your personal valuable guidelines signifies a great deal a person like me and somewhat more to my peers. Thank you; from each one of us.
Maes Carballo M, MuГ±oz NГєГ±ez I, MartГn DГaz M, Mignini L, Bueno Cavanillas A, Khan KS is generic cialis available I administer a fixed combination of a corticosteroid and antibiotic typically prednisone and gatifloxacin after LLLT and MGE because expressing long standing, inspissated meibum can produce inflammation
промокод 1xbet http://liblermont.ru/pages/ph/?promo_kod_1xbet_na_segodnya_pri_registracii.html
I in addition to my pals ended up looking through the excellent tricks found on your web page while all of the sudden got an awful suspicion I had not thanked the web blog owner for those strategies. These guys had been for that reason happy to see them and have in effect sincerely been taking pleasure in them. We appreciate you indeed being considerably considerate as well as for getting this kind of excellent information millions of individuals are really desperate to understand about. Our own honest apologies for not saying thanks to you earlier.
1xbet при регистрации промокод http://photoua.net/images/pgs/promokod__260.html
1xbet при регистрации промокод https://toolsmach.com/img/pgs/promokod_260.html
1xbet промокод при регистрации https://playacommunity.com/content/pgs/promokod_260.html
My spouse and i have been really thrilled Emmanuel managed to finish off his homework via the ideas he acquired while using the weblog. It is now and again perplexing to simply continually be handing out steps that many the others might have been making money from. So we take into account we’ve got the website owner to give thanks to for that. The main explanations you made, the easy web site menu, the relationships you will aid to create – it’s mostly excellent, and it’s letting our son and us understand the subject is thrilling, and that is exceptionally fundamental. Many thanks for all!
1xbet промокод https://polyanka44.com/include/pgs/promokod_259.html
Thanks a lot for giving everyone such a superb chance to read from this web site. It is always very beneficial and packed with amusement for me personally and my office acquaintances to visit your website minimum 3 times in one week to read the fresh secrets you have. Of course, we are usually happy with the breathtaking points you give. Some two facts in this post are really the most suitable we’ve had.
My wife and i were absolutely thrilled that Raymond managed to do his web research with the ideas he grabbed while using the web pages. It’s not at all simplistic to just be giving for free guidelines that many some other people have been selling. Therefore we already know we need the writer to be grateful to for that. Most of the explanations you have made, the easy site navigation, the relationships you can give support to engender – it is all powerful, and it is assisting our son and the family imagine that that subject matter is thrilling, and that is pretty serious. Many thanks for the whole thing!
I just wanted to compose a comment so as to express gratitude to you for the nice steps you are showing on this website. My particularly long internet search has now been rewarded with reasonable ideas to share with my relatives. I ‘d assert that most of us readers are unequivocally fortunate to be in a wonderful place with many lovely professionals with very helpful secrets. I feel quite lucky to have encountered your entire website page and look forward to some more amazing minutes reading here. Thanks a lot once more for everything.
промокод на 1xbet при регистрации https://www.topwatch.ru/pics/inc/?besplatnuy_promokod_pri_registracii.html
I am only writing to make you know what a perfect encounter my friend’s child undergone reading your site. She noticed numerous things, not to mention what it is like to have a very effective helping character to make folks with ease learn about certain complicated issues. You really surpassed our desires. Thank you for imparting the essential, healthy, edifying not to mention unique guidance on your topic to Gloria.
1x промокод https://gingerparrot.co.uk/pags/1xbet_promo_code_india_24.html
Thank you for all of the effort on this web page. My daughter take interest in working on investigations and it’s easy to understand why. I learn all about the dynamic ways you present powerful suggestions on the blog and in addition boost participation from the others on the topic while our own child is certainly discovering a whole lot. Have fun with the remaining portion of the year. You have been conducting a useful job.
1x промокод https://www.medtronik.ru/images/pages/1hbet_2021_promokod_pri_registracii.html
рабочий промокод 1xbet https://step.stim.by/lj0uH/pages/?promokod__260.html
промокод 1хбет на сегодня https://poligon64.ru/pgs/?1hbet_promokod_pri_registracii__bonus_do_32500_rub_.html
1xbet при регистрации промокод https://statusexpert.ru/wp-content/art/besplatnuy_promokod_pri_registracii.html
My spouse and i felt really satisfied when Raymond managed to deal with his basic research by way of the ideas he came across through the blog. It is now and again perplexing just to find yourself handing out information and facts most people may have been selling. And now we fully understand we have the blog owner to give thanks to for this. The type of illustrations you’ve made, the simple blog navigation, the relationships you can assist to instill – it’s got many awesome, and it’s facilitating our son and our family reckon that that concept is satisfying, and that is especially essential. Thanks for all!
cialis for sale in usa 1 billion, while R D throughout the Group amounted to approximately USD 9